17 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1464
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1482
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Stefek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (68)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.