17 Oct · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BJ
🇨🇿Bartolomej Jonas
ELO 1430
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stefek
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1464
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jonas🌟Jonas goes over total as underdog 73% (15)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.