17 Oct · 10:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1499
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fojtik🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 68% (65)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 45% · 2.23· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H15-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.