17 Oct · 12:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1569
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sulc
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1521
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H42-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.