17 Oct · 18:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1490
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Rek
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1563
FormWWWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Rek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H11-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-8)