17 Oct · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1616
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Macurak
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1512
FormLLLLW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+104
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+104)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)