17 Oct · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1556
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stusek
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1582
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 65% (124)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H8-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.