17 Oct · 20:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1537
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cizek
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1512
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Branny🌟Cizek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (74)
Fair odds · Cizek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H6-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.