18 Oct · 09:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1549
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Hons
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Motacek
ELO 1487
FormLLWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Hons
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H5-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-3)