18 Oct · 08:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1615
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Macurak
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1615
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+0
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.