18 Oct · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1544
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krupnik
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1500
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanak🌟Kanak covers set handicap as underdog 74% (77)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.