18 Oct · 08:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1732
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1615
FormWLWLL
59%
41%
🌟Macurak covers set handicap as underdog 62% (77)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+117
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)