18 Oct · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZM
🇨🇿Zdenek Macek
ELO 1491
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zeman
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zeman
ELO 1514
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.