18 Oct · 11:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1611
FormWWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Moravec
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1509
FormWLWLW
58%
42%
🌟Kanak covers set handicap as underdog 74% (77)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+102
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+102)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)