19 Oct · 10:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1551
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Flesar
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1534
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H3-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.