19 Oct · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1534
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Neterda
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1560
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Neterda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.