19 Oct · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1507
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jokiel
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1475
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strelec🌟Strelec covers set handicap as underdog 68% (59)
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H11-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.