19 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1475
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Molin
VM
🇨🇿Vojtech Molin
ELO 1476
FormWLWWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Molin🌟Strelec covers set handicap as underdog 68% (59)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.