19 Oct · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1436
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1485
FormWLLWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Drozd🌟Drozd covers set handicap as underdog 63% (46)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H6-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.