19 Oct · 09:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Palan
ELO 1503
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Flesar
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1551
FormLWWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.