19 Oct · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Palan
ELO 1503
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Martin
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1534
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Martin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.