19 Oct · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1613
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stapor
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1587
FormWWLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H162-146
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.