19 Oct · 16:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1451
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vranca
ELO 1404
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (40)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.