19 Oct · 20:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1537
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Osvald
OS
🇨🇿Ondrej Skvor
ELO 1530
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Skvor🌟Osvald stays under total as favourite 69% (35)
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.19· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.