20 Oct · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1654
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skvrna
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1612
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krenek🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (183)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H50-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.