20 Oct · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1545
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sindler
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1518
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matus🌟Sindler rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (170)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H33-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.