20 Oct · 13:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1452
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Filipek
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1390
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H18-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-13)