20 Oct · 12:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1452
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Filipek
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1444
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Balcar goes over total as underdog 64% (94)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H17-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.