20 Oct · 10:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1600
FormLLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Benes
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1707
FormLWLWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+107
H2H17-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+107)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-8)