20 Oct · 09:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1619
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1612
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Krenek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (117)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.54· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H20-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.