20 Oct · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1490
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1518
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Chlad covers set handicap as underdog 64% (56)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 43% · 2.34· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H6-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.