20 Oct · 15:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FT
🇨🇿Filip Theodor
ELO 1529
FormWLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Theodor
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1444
FormWLLWL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki
Fair odds · Theodor
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)