21 Oct · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1696
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Benes
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1727
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H26-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.