21 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1545
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pawlik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1518
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 64% (131)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H16-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.