21 Oct · 08:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1518
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krupnik
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1475
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kindl🌟Kindl goes over total as underdog 67% (100)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H19-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.