21 Oct · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1558
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1509
FormWWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (113)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H65-68
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.