21 Oct · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1651
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Skvrna
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1581
FormWWWLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (184)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H57-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (57-40)