21 Oct · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1558
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1589
FormLLLLW
47%
53%
🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 72% (180)
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H25-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.