21 Oct · 09:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1573
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1589
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H56-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.