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22 Oct · 05:00 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MOMaksim Ovcharenko
🇨🇿Maksim Ovcharenko
ELO 1657
3-1Final setsOvcharenko won
MGMateusz Galus
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1595
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Ovcharenko at 59%. The actual result was Maksim Ovcharenko 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Galus favoured — closing 1.47
Upset
Total 74.5
71 points played
Under
Set handicap
Galus −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Galus −4.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
3.6
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Maksim Ovcharenko is favoured to win, below means Mateusz Galus.

▲ Maksim Ovcharenkopre 56% → final 91%
Mateusz Galus ▼
Biggest swing 53 ptsOvcharenko recovered from 38%70 points · 4 games