22 Oct · 22:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1474
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chmelicek
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1487
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Kabelka covers set handicap as underdog 62% (58)
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H25-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.