22 Oct · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LB
🇨🇿Lukasz Buklat
ELO 1579
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Guzy
KG
🇨🇿Karol Guzy
ELO 1616
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Guzy
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H37-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.