23 Oct · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1563
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1606
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Stepien goes over total as favourite 71% (14)
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H148-65
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.