23 Oct · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1531
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Osvald
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1497
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Osvald stays under total as favourite 68% (37)
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.