23 Oct · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1531
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Osvald
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1528
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sindler🌟Sindler covers set handicap as underdog 72% (123)
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.