23 Oct · 20:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FC
🇨🇿Filip Cernota
ELO 1703
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Cernota
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1656
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🌟Cernota goes over total as favourite 64% (39)
Fair odds · Cernota
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H78-76
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.