23 Oct · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1459
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chmelicek
SM
🇨🇿Simon Mezlik
ELO 1439
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Mezlik stays under total as underdog 63% (27)
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.