24 Oct · 17:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1542
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Martin
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1497
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Vavricka covers set handicap as underdog 69% (42)
Fair odds · Martin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H5-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.