24 Oct · 18:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1415
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sobota
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1358
FormWLWLL
55%
45%
🌟Sobota goes over total as favourite 64% (44)
Fair odds · Sobota
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H16-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-12)