24 Oct · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1542
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Martin
KL
🇨🇿Krystof Lahodny
ELO 1504
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Martin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.